County level

LymeSentinel - Forecasting Hub to Detect Lyme Disease Risk Transitions

Current tick status

2026 transition risk

Relative to 2023 status. Brighter = more models agree.

Already establishedNo data

County detail

Click any county on either map

Pick a county to see its survey history, each model's 2026 transition probability and the consensus risk score.

How the risk score is calculated

Consensus risk score = ½ × mean model probability + ½ × (models agreeing ÷ 3).
Model probabilities:
a) P(No records → Reported/Established) = P(Reported) + P(Established)
b) P(Reported → Established) = P(Established)
"Mean 2023" uses the same models on the county's 2023 inputs; comparing it with "Mean 2026" shows how much the county already looked like the next class in 2023.

Highest consensus risk

Model evaluation

Validation confusion matrices

Transition detection (consecutive survey years)

Symbolic regression